National Market Index – September 2025

Scroll down to view the full National Market Index PDF released September 30, 2025.

The September 30, 2025 update to the National Market Index shows the inflation-adjusted Home Price Index (HPI/CPI) at 1.0133, reflecting a -1.0% year-over-year decline. While this is a slight step down from August’s 1.0151 reading, it continues the slow grind lower from the May 2022 peak of 1.0412. Even after thirty-eight months of correction, national housing values remain +28.0% above the long-term historical average, underscoring how structural supply constraints, elevated labor costs, and construction inflation continue to keep prices well above pre-pandemic norms.

For perspective, between 2000 and 2020, inflation-adjusted values typically ranged between 0.60 and 0.80. Today’s reading of 1.0133 means that national home prices are still roughly 70.6% higher than January 2000, a clear sign that housing has permanently shifted into a more expensive era.

One of the most important insights continues to come from comparing the two most significant housing corrections of the past 25 years. From the 2006 peak to the 2012 trough, home values fell -35.2% across a prolonged 71-month downturn during the Great Recession. Since the May 2022 high, values have eased just -2.7% over 38 months, a far shallower retreat. This stark contrast highlights the market’s resilience today. Unlike the 2008 collapse, driven by reckless lending and a flood of foreclosures, the current correction is being tempered by tighter lending standards, undersupplied inventory, and more disciplined consumer behavior. While affordability is strained, the absence of widespread distress sales has prevented the cascading failures that defined the last crash.

Price action throughout 2025 has been muted compared to the volatility of recent years. The index has gradually eased from 1.0324 in January down to 1.0133 in September. The most recent monthly shift was a marginal decline, continuing the slow glide path. On a year-over-year basis, the -1.0% annual change confirms that the market is still digesting the pandemic-era price surge, when values climbed at double-digit annual rates. This moderation points to normalization rather than collapse, as the market continues adjusting back toward balance.

Historically, the inflation-adjusted index has averaged 0.785, with a median near 0.763. Today’s 1.0133 reading remains elevated but is gradually moving back toward more sustainable territory. For buyers, this slow reversion is meaningful—it signals modestly improving affordability compared to peak valuations. But higher mortgage rates continue to blunt that relief, keeping monthly payments elevated even as prices soften. For sellers, it is clear that the easy money days are over. Homes that are priced ambitiously or lacking in condition are sitting longer and frequently requiring reductions.

The Austin market continues to track the national story closely. Since January 2000, inflation-adjusted prices in Austin are up 68.5%, nearly mirroring the national increase of 70.6%. This alignment reinforces that the housing boom and correction are broad-based, not isolated to a handful of metros.

Buyers are benefitting from modest price relief and greater negotiating power, but affordability challenges remain due to financing costs. Sellers must adapt expectations because pricing, presentation, and condition now play a decisive role in achieving successful sales. Investors are entering a market that has shifted away from easy equity appreciation. Forward-looking returns will be driven more by fundamentals such as rental yield, location quality, and value-add opportunities.

The September 2025 National Market Index confirms that while prices have slipped modestly from their 2022 peak, U.S. housing remains historically expensive on an inflation-adjusted basis. Unlike the deep downturn of 2008, this correction has been shallow, demonstrating the structural strength of housing demand even amid affordability headwinds. The current cycle suggests that normalization, not collapse, is the path forward.​